I have a theory. And I have enough empirical proof from my own life to believe it holds true. So here it is:

We are trying to systematically kill intuition. All of us.

How did I come to this ridiculous conclusion, you ask? Here’s a sample list: mass education, objective question papers, market research, decision analysis tools, DSS, statistical predictions, stock analysis, financial management, artificial intelligence and expert systems, simulation models, MIS, ERP systems, JIT, exit polls, stock betas, budget estimates… I can go on and on.

Each of the intuition-killers works on the basic premise of human psychology. We are, as a species, very uncomfortable with uncertainty. We want to understand each and every occurrence and phenomenon, past, present and future. Call it reducing risk, call it extrapolation, call it simulation. Every decision assisting tool is just a different level of replacing intuition with bare facts. And this philosophy is all-pervasive. Physics requires experiments and statistics requires data. Market research requires respondents, and JIT requires inventory levels.

Futurists estimate that intuition will actually become more important as time passes. The information overload will be so mind-boggling that the ability to see a panoramic perspective will be a priced talent. I’m no futurist, but for now, I know that we have an overwhelming tendency to doubt anything intuitive or subjective.

What seems the basic problem here? The problem is of verification, of validation. But then again, the most groundbreaking of discoveries had intuition as the main reason that differentiated the scientist from the maniac. And those discoveries had the next generation worrying about validation and then going hallelujah! over the success of logic and the power of the mind. How important intuition is going to be in the future is for time to tell, but I can at least see developments which give an optimistic tinge, dispelling my initial hypothesis. What development, you ask? Why do you think consultants are paid so highly, I ask?

:)